Bitcoin Closes Below 50-Week Average After Five Red Weeks as CPI and PPI Loom

Bitcoin closed Sunday below its 50-week moving average for the first time in eight weeks, after a fifth straight weekly loss, and heads into US inflation data this week that could firm bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

The weekly close was about 0.7% below the average, which stood at $75,488, according to Galaxy research head Alex Thorn, as The Block reported. Bitcoin then briefly fell below $74,000 on Monday.

Summary

• Bitcoin ended a seven-week run above its 50-week moving average and lost about 4.5% last week.
• October CPI is due Tuesday, Nov. 10, with analysts watching for a reading near 3.9%, and PPI follows on Friday, Nov. 13.
• Futures price roughly a 77% to 80% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike on Dec. 9 after a strong jobs report.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, and more than $1 billion in long positions were liquidated in 24 hours.

Bitcoin loses its 50-week average

Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week average on Sept. 20 and held above it for seven weeks before Sunday’s close. Traders watch the level as a rough dividing line between bull and bear trends. Thorn looked back at earlier bear-market recoveries, including 2011–2012 and 2019–2020, when Bitcoin also lost the average. He cautioned that his sample covered just five reclaims, and that a market bottom is only known in hindsight.

Analyst Ted Pillows warned that failing to reclaim the average soon makes a drop toward $70,000 highly probable, DailyCoin reported. That would be another 5% to 6% below current prices.

Five red weeks and a failed rally

Bitcoin has posted five straight weekly losses since a weekly close of $86,507 on Oct. 4, according to Blockhead. It rose above $80,000 on Nov. 4, after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and reached about $81,000. Wintermute said the gains were fully erased by Friday as markets repriced regulatory risk for the AI sector and chip stocks fell.

🚨 This week’s Bitcoin close is much more important than most people think.Bitcoin has already closed in the red for 5 consecutive weeks, and the sixth week has also started in the red.Along with that, BTC has lost its 50-week moving average for the first time in two months, a level that often helps identify whether the market is in a bull or bear trend.And this is happening just as two major U.S. inflation reports are coming out this week.• CPI is coming tomorrow, with expectations at 3.9%. • PPI is coming this Friday, with expectations at 6.6%.Last week’s strong jobs report has already increased concerns about another Fed rate hike in December.If inflation comes in hotter than expected, those fears could grow further and put more pressure on Bitcoin.Now the weekly close becomes even more important.If BTC finishes this week in the red, it would mark 6 consecutive weekly losses, a pattern that has historically appeared only during bear markets.Another close below the 50-week moving average would add to the weakness, raising concerns about whether Bitcoin is entering a longer bearish phase and whether the pump above $83K was a fakeout.

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 9, 2026

The week’s low was about $73,500 on Sunday, just above the 200-day moving average near $73,000, Wintermute said. The new week has started in the red. Social media posts describe six straight losses as a pattern seen only in bear markets. We could not verify that claim, and a losing streak shows weak momentum without deciding what comes next.

CPI and PPI face a market braced for a hike

The October consumer price report is due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. September’s annual rate was 3.7%, and BeInCrypto noted that a reading at or above 3.9% would give the Fed little reason to step back. Wintermute expects core CPI to rise 0.2% from the previous month.

A December hike is already largely priced in, so a hot core reading of 0.3% or more would make it close to certain and could send Bitcoin toward the 200-day average near $73,200, Blockhead said. An in-line report would likely keep Bitcoin range-bound. The producer price report comes Friday. Posts citing a 6.6% annual expectation for it could not be confirmed against published consensus.

Last week’s jobs report added to the pressure. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October against about 60,000 expected, pushing hike odds up from roughly 67% to about 77%, Wintermute said. The Fed meets Dec. 8–9.

ETF outflows and liquidations

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows from Nov. 2 to 6, the largest weekly withdrawal since June, according to Mitrade’s summary of FXStreet data. On Monday, more than $1 billion in crypto long positions were liquidated over 24 hours, affecting about 170,000 traders, The Block reported.

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Levels traders are watching

• $80,000: a weekly close above it, with ETF inflows, would change the outlook, Wintermute said.
• $75,500: the 50-week average Bitcoin needs to reclaim.
• $73,200: the 200-day moving average.
• $70,000 and $69,500: the round-number level and the 200-week exponential average.
• $68,000: the next level Wintermute is watching.

Read more: Why is crypto down? What’s behind the crash and will it recover

This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Prices and probabilities change quickly.