Bitcoin Falls Below $74,000 After Hot October CPI Puts a Half-Point Fed Hike in Play

Bitcoin fell below $74,000 on Tuesday after US consumer prices rose more than expected in October, and a Federal Reserve governor said a half-point rate hike in December should be considered if inflation stays this firm.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% from September, against forecasts of 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% against an expected 0.2%, CNBC reported. Bitcoin traded around $73,800 afterwards, according to crypto.news data.

Summary

• Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October and core rose 0.3% for a third straight month, both a tenth above forecasts.
• The BLS published no annual inflation rate because it collected no October 2025 prices during last year’s government shutdown.
• Traders now fully price a quarter-point hike on Dec. 9, and the odds of a half-point move rose from near zero to 13.6%.
• Bitcoin is down about 4.5% on the week and 11% over 30 days, with $73,000 the level analysts are watching.

A hot month, with no yearly rate to compare

Prices rose more slowly than in September, when CPI jumped 0.6%, but faster than economists forecast. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase. Energy rose 0.7% and food 0.5%.

This report is harder to read than usual. The BLS did not collect October 2025 prices during the government shutdown last year, so it could not calculate a year-over-year rate for headline or core CPI. The last official annual figures, for September, were 3.7% for headline and 2.6% for core. Economists estimate the October headline rate is still in the high 3% range, HousingWire reported. Social media posts ahead of the release had cited a 3.9% expectation, which turned out to have no official figure to compare against.

Waller puts a half-point hike on the table

Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke in London hours before the data. He said he supports a quarter-point increase on Dec. 9, and that a larger move should be considered if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. It did. He added that hiking only 25 basis points would “put our credibility at risk,” Yahoo Finance reported.

Markets are pricing a quarter-point hike as certain, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which would lift the federal funds range from 3.75%–4.00% to 4.00%–4.25%. The odds of a half-point hike rose to 13.6%. No other voting member has publicly backed one. Some analysts still expect 25 basis points, since the Fed meets Dec. 8–9 and the November CPI report arrives the day after the decision.

How markets reacted

Treasury yields rose. The two-year yield climbed about 14 basis points to 4.69%, and the 10-year gained 6.5 basis points to 4.93%, according to CoinDesk. Bitcoin briefly fell toward $73,500 after the release, and about $200 million of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated within five minutes, crypto.news reported. Ether traded near $2,065.

Demand from funds is also weak. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $1.28 billion from Nov. 2 to 6 and another $201 million on Monday, and Bitfinex analysts said the push toward $80,000 last week relied heavily on leveraged futures rather than spot buying.

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Support levels to watch

• $73,000 to $74,000: BRN calls $73,000 critical, with a daily close below it risking a move toward $70,000.
• $71,900: Hilbert Group’s Russell Thompson warned that a break below it could open the way to $65,000, especially if tech stocks keep falling.
• $68,000: the next level Bitget Wallet analysts flagged on a decisive breakdown.
• $80,000: analysts say Bitcoin must reclaim it with stronger spot demand for a lasting recovery.

Dates ahead

• Nov. 13: US producer price index for October.
• Nov. 18: minutes from the Fed’s October meeting.
• Dec. 8–9: Fed meeting, with a rate decision on Dec. 9.
• Dec. 10: November CPI, released after the Fed has decided.

Read more: Why is crypto down? What’s behind the crash and will it recover

This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Prices and probabilities change quickly.